Race Edge Dashboard
PREMIUMWhere the odds don't match the talent. System probability vs market price.
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Feb 18
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Jan 1
Horses Analysed
79
Value Plays
12
Pattern Alerts
17
How the Value Spotter Works
1. System Probability
Our 4-layer prediction engine calculates each horse's true win probability using Bayesian analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and machine learning.
Our 4-layer prediction engine calculates each horse's true win probability using Bayesian analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and machine learning.
2. Market Probability
Morning line odds reflect what the market thinks. We convert these odds to an implied win probability percentage.
Morning line odds reflect what the market thinks. We convert these odds to an implied win probability percentage.
3. The Edge
When our system gives a horse 22% true probability but the market prices it at 12% — that's a +10% edge. That horse is undervalued. That's where the money is.
When our system gives a horse 22% true probability but the market prices it at 12% — that's a +10% edge. That horse is undervalued. That's where the money is.
Accuracy Tracker
35 Race DaysBacktested across 335 races and 2,927 entries. Does the math actually work? Here's the proof.
Strong Edge Picks
153% more likely to win
28.1% win rate vs 11.1% baseline
· 50.0% place in top 3
Win Rate
28.1%
9 wins / 32 picks
Place Rate
50.0%
16/32 top 3
Avg Finish
3.4
of 32 tracked
Baseline
11.1%
325/2927 all picks
Recent Winners
LAUREN'S SECRET
Feb 18 · R6
+14.9% edge
ML: 5-1
MINNEHAHA
Feb 18 · R8
+10.1% edge
ML: 3/2
UNCAPTURED EMPRESS(USA)
Feb 14 · R4
+10.5% edge
ML: 5-1
1 pattern
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Race Edge Summary Key
STRONG EDGE
Value play + hidden pattern match — both signals align (the golden picks)
VALUE PLAY
System probability exceeds market price by 5%+ — odds offer value
PATTERN PICK
Matches a winning pattern from 14,500+ historical entries — watch this one
FAIR
Market has it about right — no significant edge detected
OVERBET
Market overvalues this horse — payout doesn't justify the risk