Race Edge Dashboard
PREMIUMWhere the odds don't match the talent. System probability vs market price.
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Feb 18
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Feb 14
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Jan 31
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Jan 24
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Jan 1
Horses Analysed
102
Value Plays
10
Pattern Alerts
15
How the Value Spotter Works
1. System Probability
Our 4-layer prediction engine calculates each horse's true win probability using Bayesian analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and machine learning.
Our 4-layer prediction engine calculates each horse's true win probability using Bayesian analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and machine learning.
2. Market Probability
Morning line odds reflect what the market thinks. We convert these odds to an implied win probability percentage.
Morning line odds reflect what the market thinks. We convert these odds to an implied win probability percentage.
3. The Edge
When our system gives a horse 22% true probability but the market prices it at 12% — that's a +10% edge. That horse is undervalued. That's where the money is.
When our system gives a horse 22% true probability but the market prices it at 12% — that's a +10% edge. That horse is undervalued. That's where the money is.
Accuracy Tracker
32 Race DaysBacktested across 307 races and 2,654 entries. Does the math actually work? Here's the proof.
Strong Edge Picks
131% more likely to win
25.9% win rate vs 11.2% baseline
· 44.4% place in top 3
Win Rate
25.9%
7 wins / 27 picks
Place Rate
44.4%
12/27 top 3
Avg Finish
3.7
of 27 tracked
Baseline
11.2%
296/2654 all picks
Recent Winners
UNCAPTURED EMPRESS
Feb 14 · R4
+10.5% edge
ML: 5-1
PRODIGIOUS POWER
Dec 27 · R4
+11.6% edge
ML: 4/1
BLIND VENGENCE
Dec 21 · R3
+11.2% edge
ML: 7/2
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Unlock Race Edge Dashboard
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Race Edge Summary Key
STRONG EDGE
Value play + hidden pattern match — both signals align (the golden picks)
VALUE PLAY
System probability exceeds market price by 5%+ — odds offer value
PATTERN PICK
Matches a winning pattern from 14,500+ historical entries — watch this one
FAIR
Market has it about right — no significant edge detected
OVERBET
Market overvalues this horse — payout doesn't justify the risk